Effects of Global Warming on Habitat Suitability of Ilex kaushue, a Plant with an Extremely Small Population
1. College of Agriculture and Biology Technology, Hunan University of Humanities Science and Technology, Loudi 417000, Hunan, China; 2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Farmland Weed Control Technology and Application, Loudi 417000, Hunan, China
Abstract：Ilex kaushue, a tree species with an extremely small population, is uniquely distributed in southern China and is vulnerable to climate change. In order to strengthen the protection of I. kaushue, it is necessary to study its habitat suitability range in the background of climate warming. Based on the current bioclimatic data and future climate prediction, 10 species distribution models were used to predict the potential distri-bution of I. kaushue. Among them, 3 species distribution models (GBM, MaxEnt and RF) with good prediction performance were selected out to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the habitat suitability of I. kaushue. In the current climate, the distribution range of I. kaushue was predicted to be relatively concen-trated. The lowest temperature in the coldest month (bio6), the seasonal variation of precipitation (bio15) and the precipitation in the driest month (bio14) contributed the most to the models, indicating that I. kaushue should be more sensitive to the temperature and precipitation. Under the future climate conditions, the habi-tat suitable area of I. kaushue would move northward and its habitat suitability range would decrease. The suitable growth range of I. kaushue may be reduced from 92.70% in RCP2.6 scenario to 51.52% in RCP8.5 scenario in 2070, with increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Especially in the low-latitude Hainan Province, the average suitable habitat under the 4 scenarios decreased by 93.67%. Therefore, the influence of climate change should be taken into account in protection strategies for plant species with extremely small populations like I. kaushue.
谭显胜, 段仁燕, 邹 乐, 张 涵, 胡 伟. 全球气候变暖对极小种群植物扣树生境适宜性的影响[J]. 生命科学研究, 2023, 27(1): 56-62. TAN Xiansheng, DUAN Renyan, ZOU Le, ZHANG Han, HU Wei. Effects of Global Warming on Habitat Suitability of Ilex kaushue, a Plant with an Extremely Small Population . Life Science Research, 2023, 27(1): 56-62.
